Pope Francis has called on the international community to take note of the potential catastrophic fallout of the looming war in Idlib. He pressed for negotiations and diplomacy to avoid a “humanitarian catastrophe”. The battle for Idlib is set to signal the final stage in the protracted Syrian war that has now been ongoing for 7 years.
Humanitarian cost
The war in Syria has so far seen over 350,000 deaths and has caused more than 11 million Syrian people to flee their homes. Pope Francis warned that negotiations and a diplomatic solution were preferable to continued violence. On Sunday, he appealed to the international community and all actors involved in the war to, ‘use diplomacy dialogue and negotiation’,
“in respect for international humanitarian law and to safeguard the lives of civilians.”
An estimated 3 million people call Idlib home, half of whom are internally displaced, coming from other areas in Syria. Last month the UN reported that 750,000 Syrians displaced by the war have returned to their area of origin and as the conflict draws to a close many others hope to return home. The UN high commissioner for refugees warned that the government offensive in Idlib would worsen the refugee crisis and could slow down the return of refugees to Idlib from other countries such as Lebanon.
Idlib – the final theatre?
Despite numerous reports that the war is coming to an end, strikes in Damascus demonstrate otherwise. Two people were killed on Sunday and several injured after major explosions hit Mazze military airport in Damascus in the western suburbs of the city.
Idlib is the last major enclave that has been held by various opposition rebels who have maintained a stranglehold on Idlib since 2015. Many factors suggest that this may be the last major theatre of the Syrian war. First, the Syrian army has deployed thousands of ground forces and armoured units along the southern borders of Idlib. Then, Syrian opposition forces are reported to have prepared trenches around their bases anticipating a ground offensive. Finally, there are reports of thousands of opposition fighters coming to Idlib from other areas.
A Time magazine report of August 2018 talked to witnesses on the ground in Idlib. Mustafa Hassan, a civilian who was displaced several times before settling in Idlib with his wife and five children said,
“There are thousands of opposition fighters who came from many other areas and were sent here by the government,”
“There is no other place for those fighters to go now. They will fight until they die this time.”
Moreover, Syria has now banned men of conscription age, 17-42 years, from leaving the country due to the upcoming battle in Idlib. This action and the extensive military preparation for the upcoming offensive suggest that the military and civilian casualties could be vast.
International response
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov has supported Syria’s right to force rebel factions out of Idlib. He said that Syrian government forces,
“had the full right to protect its sovereignty and to drive out, liquidate the terrorist threat on its territory”
In direct contrast, the US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said that the United States would view the Syrian government military assault on Idlib as an escalation of the conflict and criticised Russia’s moves to defend the assault.
Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif has called for militias to be “cleaned out” of Idlib. In a meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem he said,
“All of Syrian territory must be preserved and all the sects and groups should start the round of reconstruction as one collective and the displaced should return to their families,”
“And the remaining terrorists in the remaining parts of Idlib must be cleaned out and the region should be placed back under the control of the Syrian people.”
Secretary General of the UN, Antonio Guterres, issued a statement on the 29 August saying,
“The Secretary-General is deeply concerned about the growing risks of a humanitarian catastrophe in the event of a full-scale military operation in Idlib province in Syria.”
The statement went on to reiterate the UN’s condemnation of chemical weapons, called for the conflict to be de-escalated, and called on all parties to ensure the safeguarding of civilian lives.
As Pope Francis concluded, a diplomatic solution should be the aim at this stage in the conflict when the human cost has already been so high. The return of refugees to their homes is essentially futile if the next wave of conflict will displace them once again. Therefore, the international community must, as Pope Francis suggests, look firmly towards a diplomatic solution rather than a military one.